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dc.contributor.authorGanics, Gergely Akos
dc.contributor.authorOrtega Eslava, Eva
dc.date.accessioned2020-03-24T07:43:45Z
dc.date.available2020-03-24T07:43:45Z
dc.date.issued2019-09-11
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.bde.es/handle/123456789/10783
dc.descriptionArtículo de revista
dc.description.abstractThe forecasting of macroeconomic variables is an important task of the Banco de España for the satisfactory monitoring of the economic situation. Macroeconomic projections are made by combining various econometric models with expert judgement. This article compares the Spanish GDP growth and inflation projections published by the Banco de España with those that would be obtained automatically from an alternative econometric model. This exercise reveals that the Banco de España’s projections surpass those of the econometric model in terms of how closely they coincide with the variables predicted (GDP and inflation), i.e. they have smaller prediction forecasting errors. This confirms that the information provided by expert opinion improves the accuracy of projections, above all in short time horizons and, in particular, in predictions of GDP growth. It is also found that, in the past decade, the accurate prediction of inflation has been considerably more difficult than that of GDP growth.
dc.format.extent7 p.
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherBanco de España
dc.relation.ispartofEconomic bulletin / Banco de España. Analytical articles
dc.relation.ispartofEconomic bulletin / Banco de España [Artículos], n. 3, 2019
dc.relation.hasversionVersión en español 123456789/9692
dc.rightsReconocimiento-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0 Internacional (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
dc.rightsIn Copyright - Non Commercial Use Permitted
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/deed.es_ES
dc.rights.urihttp://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC-NC/1.0/
dc.subjectMacroeconomic projections
dc.subjectForecast evaluation
dc.subjectVector autoregression
dc.titleBanco de España macroeconomic projections: comparison with an econometric model
dc.typeArtículo
dc.identifier.bdebib000469021
dc.identifier.bdepubECBU-2019-3B-art26
dc.subject.bdePrevisiones
dc.subject.bdeConstrucción, validación y contraste
dc.subject.bdePredicción
dc.publisher.bdeMadrid : Banco de España, 2019
dc.subject.jelE17
dc.subject.jelC52
dc.subject.jelC53
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