The effect of food crises on international migration

Abstract

In the current global setting of rising food prices and growing food insecurity, this article analyses how food crises affect forced international migration. According to the results obtained from a structural gravity model, food crises lead to a significant increase in the number of forced international migrants, although the intensity of the effect depends on the severity of the crisis. Thus, mild crises trigger a higher increase in the number of international migrants, but this effect eases as they become more severe. Further, when faced by more severe crises, international migrants are more likely to head for developing countries. This is because food crises prompt migrants to use more of their resources to cover their basic food needs, limiting their ability to migrate, especially to destinations that entail higher costs such as developed countries.