A supply-side GDP nowcasting model

Abstract

Rationale The recent shocks to the Spanish economy, linked to both COVID-19 and rising energy prices, have had an uneven impact across sectors of activity, underscoring the importance of monitoring the supply side of economic activity. Takeaways •This article presents a model for forecasting quarterly GDP using a combination of monthly indicators to estimate the growth of gross value added for each sector of activity. •The results in terms of forecasting accuracy evidence the usefulness of a sectoral approach, as a complementary tool for monitoring economic activity in the short term.