Economic effects of a possible prolonged deterioration in the general health of the Spanish population

Abstract

Rationale The last year has seen growing demand for healthcare services, but the causes of this increase, and how persistent it will be, are as yet uncertain. Should these dynamics prove to be long-lasting and associated with a prolonged deterioration in the general health of the Spanish population, they could have a significant economic impact.

Takeaways •The latest waves of the Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas healthcare barometer show an increase in demand for healthcare services in Spain. The number of workers losing work days as a result of illness, temporary disability or injury has also risen. •There is considerable uncertainty as to the causes and potential persistence of these developments, although some dynamics appear to be in line with the predictions made in the literature studying COVID-19 sequelae among a widely vaccinated population. •If these developments prove to be long-lasting and associated with a prolonged deterioration in the general health of the Spanish population, they may require a structural increase in healthcare expenditure that is as yet difficult to estimate, as well as having an adverse, but highly uncertain, impact on potential output.