How natural gas demand has evolved in 2022-2023

Abstract

Rationale In view of the energy emergency owing to the war in Ukraine, this article analyses how natural gas consumption by households, firms and the electricity sector evolved in 2022 and early 2023, to identify whether the changes are merely conjunctural or structural in nature. Takeaways •Last year was much warmer than usual. This explained households’ lower demand for gas in the first half of 2022, but it was not sufficient to warrant the larger fall in demand in the second half. During the first four months of 2023 the typical temperature-related consumption pattern was restored. •Firms’ demand for gas has been lower than usual since April 2022, including in the first four months of 2023. This lower consumption may partly be on account of energy efficiency improvements and investments in renewables made by firms. •By contrast, in 2022 the electricity sector posted its highest demand for natural gas in recent years, owing to low hydropower and cogeneration output and, especially, to Spanish electricity exports for conjunctural reasons.