An estimation of the contribution of the foreign population in Spain to GDP per capita growth in the period 2022-2024

Abstract

Rationale Migratory flows to Spain have been particularly strong following the pandemic, contributing to the growth of GDP and employment in the Spanish economy. This article estimates the contribution of the foreign population to GDP per capita growth in Spain between 2022 and 2024 and quantifies the channels through which it was made. Takeaways •GDP per capita in Spain grew at an annual average rate of 2.9% between 2022 and 2024. •Based on a mechanical decomposition, the foreign population made an average direct contribution to GDP per capita growth of between 0.4 percentage points (pp) and 0.7 pp. •This contribution is similar, in relative terms, to that estimated in prior upswings and was mainly shaped by two factors: the headway in the assimilation – in different dimensions – of the immigrants who entered Spain in the early 2000s and the improvements in the education level and the occupational distribution of those who have arrived in recent years.