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Consumption in the shadow of unemployment

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Issue Date
2014
Physical description
42 p. : gráf., tab.
Abstract
By how much do employed households reduce their consumption when the aggregate unemployment rate rises? In Spain during the Great Recession a 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate was related to a strong drop in household consumption of more than 0.7% per equivalent adult. This reduction is the response of forward-looking agents to downward revisions of their expectations on future income growth rates: the shadow of unemployment. Using consumption panel data that include information on physical quantities, we show that the drop in consumption expenditure was indeed a reduction in quantities, and not a switch to cheaper alternatives

¿En cuánto se reduce el consumo de los hogares, aun de aquellos que continúan empleados, cuando aumenta la tasa de paro? En España, durante la Gran Recesión, un punto adicional de aumento en la tasa de paro estuvo asociado a una caída de 0,7 % de caída del consumo por adulto equivalente. Esta reducción del consumo refl eja el deterioro de las expectativas de ingreso de los hogares. Utilizando datos de panel que incluyen información sobre cantidades físicas, encontramos que la caída en el gasto de consumo se debe a una reducción en las cantidades, y no en los precios
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Documentos de trabajo / Banco de España, 1411
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