Macroeconomic projections for the Spanish economy (2016-2018) : the Banco de España's contribution to the Eurosystem's June 2016 join projection exercise

Abstract

Since the inception of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), experts from the national central banks of the euro area countries and from the European Central Bank (ECB) have, on a half-yearly basis, prepared macroeconomic projections for submission to the ECB Governing Council at the start of the months of June and December each year. In these exercises, the projections for the area are the result of aggregating those of each country. The methodology for the technical assumptions used (which affect variables such as interest rates, oil and other commodities prices, the exchange rate and stock markets) and for the fiscal assumptions, along with the projections for the external setting of the euro area, is common to all the Eurosystem countries