2024-03-28T10:46:03Zhttps://repositorio.bde.es/oai/requestoai:repositorio.bde.es:123456789/63672023-12-04T14:10:37Zcom_123456789_5663com_123456789_21col_123456789_5726
Repositorio Institucional
author
Nuño, Galo
author
Pulido Deza, Cristina
author
Segura Cayuela, Rubén
2019-08-10T17:08:42Z
2019-08-10T17:08:42Z
2012-07-05
ISSN: 1579-8666 (en línea)
https://repositorio.bde.es/handle/123456789/6367
000343886
DOCA-201206-eng
This paper analyses the long-run growth rates of advanced economies, based on demographic factors. To this end, growth is broken down into two components: growth in productivity (GDP per working-age person) and the projected rate of growth of the working-age population. Productivity is assumed to grow in the longrun at a constant rate equal to that of the technology leader, whereas the demographic projections are those of the United Nations. This simple methodology abstracts from other factors normally considered in the literature on long-term growth, such as the convergence process (we focus on advanced economies) and heterogeneity in participation and employment rates. However, the results do not differ much from those obtained using these other approaches (which are richer, but also more speculative), although the growth rates turn out to be somewhat lower in most cases. They indicate a general deceleration of growth in advanced economies in the coming two decades, due to a slowdown in working-age population growth. Japan, Germany, Italy and Spain face the least favourable growth dynamics in our sample, as these countries face reductions in the size of their workforces. By 2050 France and the United Kingdom could have overtaken Germany to become the largest economies in Europe. In the case of Spain (whose working-age population is expected to peak in 2024) the growth rate of GDP will progressively decline to just below 2% over the following decade
eng
Reconocimiento-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0 Internacional (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
Advanced economies
Demography
Convergence
Endogenous growth
Economías avanzadas
Demografía
Convergencia
Crecimiento endógeno
Long-run growth and demographic prospects in advanced economies
Documento de trabajo
URL
https://repositorio.bde.es/bitstream/123456789/6367/1/do1206e.pdf
File
MD5
3166692b1eb767e8dcceb65acf5f8a93
968681
application/pdf
do1206e.pdf
URL
https://repositorio.bde.es/bitstream/123456789/6367/2/do1206e.pdf.txt
File
MD5
e9c01feefcb7dbf51c3fc3a03f29e47d
66546
text/plain
do1206e.pdf.txt