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Ñ-STING : España short term indicator of growth Camacho, Máximo Pérez Quirós, Gabriel Business cycles Output growth Time series Fluctuaciones y ciclos económicos Modelización econométrica Modelos econométricos E32 C22 E27 Crecimiento económico / Convergencia Sociedades no financieras / empresas Situación económica Métodos cuantitativos We develop a dynamic factor model to compute short term forecasts of the Spanish GDP growth in real time. With this model, we compute a business cycle index which works well as an indicator of the business cycle conditions in Spain. To examine its real time forecasting accuracy, we use real-time data vintages from 2008.02 through 2009.01. We conclude that the model exhibits good forecasting performance in anticipating the recent and sudden downturn 2009-06-23 Documento de trabajo ISSN: 0213-2710 (en papel) ISSN: 1579-8666 (en línea) https://repositorio.bde.es/handle/123456789/6990 en Documentos de Trabajo / Banco de España, 0912 Reconocimiento-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0 Internacional (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) In Copyright - Non Commercial Use Permitted https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/deed.es_ES http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC-NC/1.0/ 29 p. : gráf. application/pdf España Banco de España Madrid : Banco de España, 2009