House prices and rents in Spain : does the discount factor matter?

Abstract

We estimate alternative price-to-rent ratios in the Spanish housing market by considering different stochastic discount factors in present value models similar to those used in the financial literature but where the higher rigidity that characterises this market is taken into account. We identify three robust across-model regularities: i) the increase in the price-to-rent ratio since the late nineties helped at first to restore equilibrium, ii) further increases in house prices raised the ratio between 24% and 32% above equilibrium by 2004, although iii) at that time the ratio was only around 2% above its short-term adjustment path towards a (new) long-run equilibrium. [resumen de autor]