Report on the Latin American economy : first half of 2017

Abstract

The Latin American economies face a highly complex outlook as a result of various factors, such as the fragility of the recovery in the advanced economies in the wake of the crisis, the tensions in re-balancing the Chinese economy and doubts over the extent of the pickup in commodities prices. And adding to these has been the change of US Administration, with potential global implications owing to the expected change in the US economic policy stance. Nonetheless, National Accounts data have shown a muted improvement in the region as a whole in the second half of 2016, assisted by the firmness of financial markets, the easing in monetary policies – against a backdrop of falling inflation – and the turnaround in commodities prices. The higher-frequency indicators point to a continuation of this improvement in the opening months of 2017. For 2017 as a whole, a moderate pick-up in growth across the region is expected, but one that is notably uneven from country to country, and with the balance of risks to growth remaining tilted to the downside